Dropping Out

Yesterday I confirmed that I got the Bristol v Warriors result wrong – this is not simply a way of reminding you that I had all the other 5 right (although I confess that is a jolly good way to do it!).

The result did more than spoil my otherwise perfect score (see how I did that again?).

The real interest about the first win for Bristol is that it beings them back into the frame by putting them a mere 2 points behind the Warriors in the table.

The pair are now well adrift of the next team – Bristol have 8 points, Worcester 10 and Sale are a further 8 points (2 x wins) ahead plus a much better (or less worse) points scored difference.

Had Worcester won on Sunday then it would almost certainly have been the death knell for Bristol as they would have been 10 points adrift.

No team with a point’s deficit at Christmas of more than 9 has survived – and many with less have been relegated.

However it is not exceptional for a team bottom at the turn of the year to escape the drop

 

London Irish Won 1, Lost 10 11th Bristol
West Hartlepool Won 1, Lost 12 14th West Hartlepool
Bedford Lost 11 12th Bedford
Rotherham Won 1, Lost 10: 6 points 9 12th Rotherham
Wasps Won 3, Lost 8: 15 points 4 7th
Newcastle Won 3, Lost 8: 16 points 1 10th Bristol
Rotherham Lost 11: 0 points 19 12th Rotherham
Northampton Won 2, Lost 9: 14 points 3 11th Harlequins
Leeds Won 2, Lost 9: 11 points 6 12th Leeds
Worcester Won 1, Lost 10: 9 points 9 11th Northampton
Leeds Won 1, Lost 10: 6 points 5 12th Leeds
Bristol Won 1, Drawn 1, Lost 9: 9 points 3 12th Bristol
Leeds Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 13 points 3 10th Worcester
Leeds Won 1, Lost 10: 8 points 4 12th Leeds
Newcastle Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 11 points 6 12th Newcastle
Sale Won 1, Lost 10: 7 points 5 10th London Welsh
Worcester Lost 11: 3 points 10 12th Worcester
London Welsh Lost 11: 1 point 14 12th London Welsh
Newcastle Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 8: 12 points 0 11th London Irish
Bristol Won 1, Lost 10: 8 points 2 ? ?

In the 19 previous seasons the team bottom at Christmas has survived on 7 occasions – Leeds escaped relegation in 2001/2 because Rotherham’s ground didn’t meet the requirements of the league.

Bristol have reason to hope – although they won’t have Tusi Pisi for a few weeks I imagine.

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